Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

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Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by LT USN (Ret.) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:49 am

International markets and the devaluation of the Lira (Turkey’s currency); how could (will) this impact Canik and the importation of their firearms?

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/eco ... ocks-react
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by higgybaby » Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:16 am

I hope it works out.... I have never been as excited about a gun as I am the Canik. I would love to fill up my gun locker with C-100's, D.A's, and a few Elites.
So....I hate to see us at any serious odds with Turkey. Turkey is far from our most trusted ally- however they are also not our enemy. They do have some serious political problems....but we should give them breathing room- they ARE between a rock and a hard place.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Badgerboy » Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:57 pm

I think it is only on raw material, not assembled or manufactured products...but I could be wrong. If I am, I have a TP9SF for sale for $1200...
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by TL1000RSquid » Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Don't see relations improving as long as Erodgen is in charge over there. We had good relations with Turkey in modern times cause the .gov was always pretty secular and when someone to islamic or leftist got in power the military stepped in but with the fake coup he was able to purge the military of anyone who'd intervene.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by DWARREN123 » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:13 pm

Could go either way. Hope everything gets worked out.
I do not believe in getting involved in other countries beliefs or laws as a government or individual.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Father of 5 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:26 am

I don't think the tariffs will have an effect on the importation of the pistols, but the plunge in value of the Lira vs the dollar should allow century to buy more pistols for less 💰. Hopefully they pass the savings along to the consumer and flood the market for a while with as many Caniks as they can import. Caniks are already a good value, but they would really dominate US sales with a 20% or more price drop. China has practiced currency manipulation for decades, devaluing its currency so that other countries can't compete with them in the global marketplace. It is how they have come to dominate in manufacturing and lead in global exports. The devaluation of the Lira may actually work to Turkey's benefit as long as their economy is export driven, and not consumer based.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Badgerboy » Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:07 am

Father of 5 wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:26 am
I don't think the tariffs will have an effect on the importation of the pistols, but the plunge in value of the Lira vs the dollar should allow century to buy more pistols for less 💰. Hopefully they pass the savings along to the consumer and flood the market for a while with as many Caniks as they can import. Caniks are already a good value, but they would really dominate US sales with a 20% or more price drop. China has practiced currency manipulation for decades, devaluing its currency so that other countries can't compete with them in the global marketplace. It is how they have come to dominate in manufacturing and lead in global exports. The devaluation of the Lira may actually work to Turkey's benefit as long as their economy is export driven, and not consumer based.
Spot-on analysis...but what do you care? You get Caniks for free. :d
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by ncjw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:06 pm

So a quick thought experiment:

Say a few months ago Century bought a Canik for $300 and sold it for $360 (20 pct more). At 4 lira/$ it shipped from Canik for 1200 lira. Probably most if not all of the gun was sourced in Turkey, so their costs haven't changed.

Now it is 6 lira/$ so Canik still gets 1200 lira per gun but it now costs Century $200. Pretty good deal. They can either add 20 pct for $240 or a flat $60 for $260 (their costs in dollars didn't change, so flat is actually a pretty reasonable response). Either way, it results in a much cheaper gun in dollars.

But wait, Century doesn't know if this is a political blip or a new long term level for the lira/$ rate. They may have volume contracts saying that they have to provide credits if prices go down in the future, they may have a lot of inventory at the old exchange rates, who knows, but there is a lot of uncertainty.

So don't expect an immediate drop in price. Hopefully, we get a good sale or two or something. Also, keep in mind that Canik exports don't amount to enough to move Turkey's needle, no matter how much they need dollars. So don't expect almost free guns just yet...
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by John_ » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:02 pm

So here is what the Turkish folks think of Trump's new tariffs.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=keYYu_1533996729
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Janik » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:25 am

higgybaby wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:16 am
I have never been as excited about a gun as I am the Canik.
I feel the same way. I wasn't enjoying shooting sports anymore till I got my hands on a Canik.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by ncjw » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:37 am

John_ wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:02 pm
So here is what the Turkish folks think of Trump's new tariffs.
As happens quite often, propaganda backfires. The actors are clearly either using Xeroxed US dollars or using maybe a grand total of thirty one dollar bills in their "demonstration".

It just goes to show how valuable the dollars are to them.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by ncjw » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:41 am

Janik wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:25 am
higgybaby wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:16 am
I have never been as excited about a gun as I am the Canik.
I feel the same way. I wasn't enjoying shooting sports anymore till I got my hands on a Canik.
I agree completely, although the Venom red dot shares some of that credit.

Good news: Shooting pistol more than I have in years and 1K rounds of 9mm is much cheaper than .223 or other rifle ammo. Bad news: Not shooting my rifles much less than before so the total outlay is still climbing...
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Janik » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:40 pm

ncjw wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:41 am
Janik wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:25 am
higgybaby wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:16 am
I have never been as excited about a gun as I am the Canik.
I feel the same way. I wasn't enjoying shooting sports anymore till I got my hands on a Canik.
I agree completely, although the Venom red dot shares some of that credit.

Good news: Shooting pistol more than I have in years and 1K rounds of 9mm is much cheaper than .223 or other rifle ammo. Bad news: Not shooting my rifles much less than before so the total outlay is still climbing...
I haven't been able to afford a red dot yet for my SFx, but that Freedomsmith trigger is friggin' awesome. Can't wait to get a Venom and make it even more fun to shoot.
A little over a year and a half ago I was ready to give up on shooting. I've always been a DA/SA fan so I figured I'd give the relatively unknown brand a try. I bought a V2 and fell in love right away. I liked the ergos better than my Glocks and M&P's, and I was able to hit a target more accurately. Not implying anything is wrong with other brands, but Canik just seems to fit me better and perform better in my hands than most other brands. Thankfully I was able to purchase most of my Caniks when they were a bit cheaper in price.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by ncjw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:05 pm

Pretty good podcast on Turkey (20 mins). Raoul Pal is the real deal as far as understanding international currencies.

http://adventuresinfinance.realvision.l ... -on-turkey

The first 60 episodes are pretty good in this series, but then they changed the format and gave it to a bunch of kids to manage. "Knock on effect" is the Queens English for a secondary effect, usually unintended or unplanned.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by ncjw » Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:43 pm

I got to thinking about the multiple posts here regarding the Taurus G2S breaking the magic $199 barrier and realized that it might be a perfect analogy for the Canik/Turkey situation.

The Brazilian Real has also taken a major hit vs the dollar, on the same scale as the Turkish Lira. So you can still get a G2S, it is just much cheaper than it used to be.

Hopefully, we will see some significant sales on Canik in the near future.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Janik » Wed Aug 29, 2018 6:46 pm

ncjw wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:43 pm
Hopefully, we will see some significant sales on Canik in the near future.
We shall see. I panicked yesterday and put another Canik TP9DA on layaway at Buds Gun Shop. If your assumption is correct, I probably should have waited. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Hopefully both our countries can move past this and be back on good terms.
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Re: Bad Day for Turkey; is it bad for Canik?

Post by Father of 5 » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:36 pm

More so than geopolitics, the biggest problem causing the devaluation of their currency is the Turkish central banks current monetary policy. They are having high inflation because of loose monetary policy. They will not raise interest rates to help alleviate the situation and it doesn't look like there will be a change in sentiment any time soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... ng-holiday

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... rd-landing

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08- ... two-charts
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